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Bias: Bearish
Volatility: Low
ATR: $0.58 (0.08%)
Generated: 2026-07-28 [STALE]
CALL PLAY Conf: 70%
SPY 2026-07-29 $740.0C
Bid: $3.41
Ask: $3.44
OI: 5784
D: 0.464
G: 0.041
T: -1.179
IV: 18.1%
PUT PLAY Conf: 70%
SPY 2026-07-29 $738.0P
Bid: $3.35
Ask: $3.38
OI: 2850
D: -0.454
G: 0.041
T: -1.187
IV: 18.1%

Trading Brief

**CALL PLAY:** The call side is a tough trade today. You need SPY to reclaim $740.11 with conviction — look for a clean break and hold above that level on volume, not just a wick. Even then, PT1 at $741.22 only gives you $1.11 of upside against $1.97 of risk, which is a 0.6R loser's bet. PT2 at $742.33 gets you to 1.1R, barely acceptable. With theta bleeding $1.18/day on a 1DTE contract and delta at 0.46, you need roughly a $2.15 move in SPY just to offset overnight decay — and that's nearly 4x the ATR. In a low-vol, bearish-bias session, this call is a fade-the-rally scalp at best. If you take it, sell into PT1 and move on.

**PUT PLAY:** This is the play today. The put triggers on a break below $738.36 with only $0.89 of risk to the $739.25 stop, and PT1 at $737.25 already pays 1.2R. PT2 at $736.14 delivers 2.5R, and PT3 is a 3.8R home run. The bearish bias, tight ATR, and the fact that SPY is sitting just under the $740 pivot all favor downside continuation. Delta and theta are nearly identical to the call, but the risk/reward is night-and-day better. Size the put, keep the stop tight at $739.25, take half off at PT1, and let the rest ride toward PT2.

Playbook Levels

Call Play
Entry: $740.11
PT1: $741.22 (0.56R)
PT2: $742.33 (1.12R)
PT3: $743.44 (1.69R)
Stop: $738.14
Put Play
Entry: $738.36
PT1: $737.25 (1.25R)
PT2: $736.14 (2.5R)
PT3: $735.03 (3.75R)
Stop: $739.25
Pivot Levels
R3: $740.46
R2: $740.35
R1: $740.11
Pivot: $740.00
S1: $739.76
S2: $739.65
S3: $739.41
Legend
Call Entry
Call Targets
Put Entry
Put Targets
Stop Loss